Spread to win probability API

Converts a point spread into a straight-up win probability via a normal margin model with sport-specific standard deviation, returning cover and push probabilities and the implied fair moneyline. Answers 'What win probability does a -7 spread imply?', 'What are the fair odds for this point spread?'.

Price$0.06per request

MethodPOST

Route/v1/sports/spread-winprob

StatusLive

MIME typeapplication/json

Rate limit120/minute

Cache0s public

sportsbettingpoint-spreadwin-probabilitynflnbamoneylinenormal-modelcover

API URLhttps://x402.hexl.dev/v1/sports/spread-winprob

Integration docs

Example request

{
  "spread": -7
}

Example response

{
  "spread": -7,
  "stdDev": 13.5,
  "expectedMargin": 7,
  "winProbability": 0.697952,
  "pushProbabilityApprox": 0.025834,
  "fairDecimalOdds": 1.432764,
  "fairAmerican": -231,
  "formula": "P(win) = Φ((-spread)/σ); σ default 13.5 (NFL)"
}

Input schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "required": [
    "spread"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "spread": {
      "type": "number",
      "description": "Favorite's spread, negative for favorite",
      "examples": [
        -7
      ]
    },
    "stdDev": {
      "type": "number",
      "description": "Margin std dev (default 13.5 NFL)",
      "examples": [
        13.5,
        11
      ]
    }
  }
}

Output schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "additionalProperties": true
}