Poisson match 1X2 model API

Builds the scoreline grid from each side's expected goals and aggregates home/draw/away probabilities, most-likely scoreline, fair 1X2 odds, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Answers 'What are the 1X2 probabilities from these expected goals?', 'What is the most likely scoreline?'.

Price$0.08per request

MethodPOST

Route/v1/sports/poisson-match

StatusLive

MIME typeapplication/json

Rate limit120/minute

Cache0s public

sportsbettingpoissonsoccerfootballexpected-goals1x2over-underbtts

API URLhttps://x402.hexl.dev/v1/sports/poisson-match

Integration docs

Example request

{
  "homeExpectedGoals": 1.5,
  "awayExpectedGoals": 1.1
}

Example response

{
  "homeExpectedGoals": 1.5,
  "awayExpectedGoals": 1.1,
  "maxGoals": 10,
  "probHomeWin": 0.464244,
  "probDraw": 0.257667,
  "probAwayWin": 0.278089,
  "fairDecimalHome": 2.154041,
  "fairDecimalDraw": 3.880975,
  "fairDecimalAway": 3.595977,
  "mostLikelyScore": "1-1",
  "mostLikelyScoreProbability": 0.122551,
  "probOver2_5": 0.48157,
  "probUnder2_5": 0.51843,
  "probBothTeamsScore": 0.518272,
  "formula": "P(home h, away a) = Poisson(h;λh)·Poisson(a;λa); aggregate over h≷a"
}

Input schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "required": [
    "homeExpectedGoals",
    "awayExpectedGoals"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "homeExpectedGoals": {
      "type": "number",
      "examples": [
        1.5
      ]
    },
    "awayExpectedGoals": {
      "type": "number",
      "examples": [
        1.1
      ]
    },
    "maxGoals": {
      "type": "number",
      "description": "Grid cap per side (1-20)",
      "examples": [
        10
      ]
    }
  }
}

Output schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "additionalProperties": true
}