Sprint completion probability API

Estimate the probability of completing a commitment using a normal model of velocity — P = Φ((meanVelocity·sprints - committedPoints) / (sd·√sprints)) — returning the z-score, probability, and a confidence bucket so teams can commit at a target confidence. Answers 'what is the chance we finish these points','probability of hitting the sprint commitment','how risky is this commitment given our velocity variance'.

Price$0.01per request

MethodPOST

Route/v1/calc/pm-sprint-completion-probability

StatusLive

MIME typeapplication/json

Rate limit120/minute

CacheNo cache

calcpmagileprobabilitysprintscrumforecastrisk

API URLhttps://x402.hexl.dev/v1/calc/pm-sprint-completion-probability

Integration docs

Example request

{
  "committedPoints": 90,
  "meanVelocity": 100,
  "velocityStdDev": 15,
  "sprints": 1
}

Example response

{
  "committedPoints": 90,
  "meanVelocity": 100,
  "velocityStdDev": 15,
  "sprints": 1,
  "expectedDelivery": 100,
  "totalStdDev": 15,
  "zScore": 0.6667,
  "probability": 0.7475,
  "probabilityPct": 74.75,
  "confidence": "moderate",
  "formula": "P = Φ((meanVelocity·sprints - committed) / (sd·√sprints))"
}

Input schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "required": [
    "committedPoints",
    "meanVelocity",
    "velocityStdDev"
  ],
  "properties": {
    "committedPoints": {
      "type": "number",
      "examples": [
        90
      ]
    },
    "meanVelocity": {
      "type": "number",
      "description": "Mean points completed per sprint",
      "examples": [
        100
      ]
    },
    "velocityStdDev": {
      "type": "number",
      "description": "Std deviation of historical velocity",
      "examples": [
        15
      ]
    },
    "sprints": {
      "type": "number",
      "default": 1,
      "examples": [
        1
      ]
    }
  }
}

Output schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "additionalProperties": true
}