US recession signal (curve + Sahm) API

Composite US recession indicator combining the 3-month/10-year Treasury yield-curve inversion (US Treasury) and the Sahm rule from BLS unemployment (3-month moving average minus trailing-12-month low) into one scored signal with a plain-English verdict. The value-add is computing both classic indicators and fusing them. Answers 'are we heading into a recession', 'is the yield curve signaling recession', 'what does the Sahm rule say', 'US recession probability indicators'.

Price$0.01per request

MethodPOST

Route/v1/finance/recession-signal

StatusLive

MIME typeapplication/json

Rate limit60/minute

Cache3600s public

financerecessionyield-curvesahm-ruleinversionmacroindicatorseconomics

API URLhttps://x402.hexl.dev/v1/finance/recession-signal

Integration docs

Example request

{}

Example response

{
  "asOf": "2026-06-03",
  "yieldCurve": {
    "spread3m10yBps": 69,
    "inverted": false,
    "date": "2026-06-02"
  },
  "sahmRule": {
    "value": 0.13,
    "triggered": false,
    "asOf": "2026-04",
    "threshold": 0.5
  },
  "signalsTriggered": 0,
  "compositeScore": 0,
  "verdict": "Low risk: neither indicator is currently signaling.",
  "sources": [
    "US Treasury par yield curve (10y-3m)",
    "BLS unemployment LNS14000000 (Sahm rule)"
  ]
}

Input schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "required": [],
  "properties": {}
}

Output schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "additionalProperties": true
}